The Anaheim Ducks enter the 2024-25 season with lingering questions about their defensive strength and team dynamics. A poor track record and the absence of star power have left this dormant franchise struggling to escape the bottom of the standings. However, the youth movement offers a glimmer of hope for a rebuilding process that requires patience and a meticulous approach. It’s evident that the Ducks are assembling their pieces with care, aiming for a dramatic rise and a breakthrough that could transform them into a force in the NHL for years to come.
From my perspective, having followed this team closely over the years, the Ducks’ trajectory has always been about waiting for that elusive tipping point. While pinpointing this moment isn’t easy, it’s fascinating to watch a franchise betting on potential over quick fixes.
Playoff Chances and Projected Points
Heading into this season, the Ducks’ playoff chances remain slim. Analysts predict a modest bump in performance, buoyed by the natural progression of age curves and incremental improvements in their true talent baseline. Currently projected for a 70-point season, the team has shown an 11-point improvement compared to last year, though this still falls flat against league averages. Their adjusted stats, accounting for two goals per game, place them at the fourth-highest mark for age-adjusted progress — a promising but cautious sign.
Having worked on statistical modeling in sports, I’ve learned to guess trends using these metrics. Still, as a Ducks fan, I know firsthand how often the reality veers from the projections. Will this be the year the youth finally breaks through?
Roster Rankings and the Rebuild
The storyline between 2022-23 and 2023-24 mirrors the current narrative. A stagnant rebuild left fans hoping for a transformative explosion from the young core, only to see a one-point increase in overall performance. This possibility of continued stagnation is real, yet the Ducks’ roster holds potential for a surprise mix of talent. Their path to contention lies in ensuring these young players evolve into consistent contributors.
As someone who has observed this team rebuild over time, I can say the Ducks’ approach, though frustrating, demonstrates their commitment to long-term success. When they finally see results, it’ll validate the wait.
The big question
Will the young core finally emerge as impactful players?
The Anaheim Ducks are entering the 2024-25 season with a mix of realistic optimism and understandable caution. After a disaster of a 2022-23 season, the team has shown modest progress but still faces continued uncertainty about their playoff potential. Despite one of the worst defensive groups in recent NHL history, new coach Greg Cronin has brought a tough-love approach, helping players maximize their potential. His decisions around playing time have set a foundation for growth.
From my experience following the Ducks closely, defensive issues and injuries remain glaring weaknesses. However, Cronin deserves credit for emphasizing solid defensive retrievals and offensive zone entries, which helped players like Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson maintain their form. Watching Carlsson transition to North America at a 90th-percentile level in areas like D-zone retrievals speaks to the franchise’s potential.
The true core members of the Ducks revolve around three young forwards: Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson, and Mason McTavish. Terry, now a 27-year-old veteran, remains Anaheim’s best forward, while Carlsson is emerging as a franchise center with his highlight-reel skillset. Carlsson’s rookie season showcased game-changing potential, with a solid 55 points in just 60 games, an impressive feat for a teenager.
My perspective: Carlsson’s managed workload and rapid adaptation hint at his ability to become an offensive catalyst for this rebuild, much like what I observed with other top-tier NHL centers in their early years. McTavish, entering his second NHL season, offers a high-end second-line presence, though injuries limited him last year. It’s exciting to see how these players can become true difference-makers as the Ducks’ pipeline rankings improve.
On the defensive end, the Ducks’ Defensive Rating of minus-4 remains a legitimate red flag. Allowing the 10th-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the 2023-24 season underscores their garden-variety crumminess in their own zone. However, Cronin’s emphasis on accountability and his ability to foster modest growth among forwards shows promise.
Having observed the team during their awful 2022-23 calendar year, the contrast is striking. While the defensive group still struggles, there are glimmers of hope as players like Cutter Gauthier, a recent addition, bring prototypical top-six size and skill. Watching Gauthier’s transition will be pivotal in determining if the Ducks can improve their defensive impacts.
The Ducks’ playoff hopes rest heavily on whether their top six forwards can maintain health and form. Trevor Zegras stands at a crossroads-type season, where he must regain his trajectory and settle as a 60-point complementary piece. The clock is ticking for the Ducks to start showing true progress, especially with their pipeline rankings being a bright spot. If players like Frank Vatrano and Mason McTavish can stay healthy, the Ducks could finally find some balance.
As a fan, I’ve seen plenty of weight given to Anaheim’s struggles, but this season offers reasons for optimism, despite the bleak state of recent years. Watching Carlsson and McTavish grow alongside veterans like Terry gives a sense of hope. The Ducks’ playoff success hinges on these pieces coming together—a tough task, but one that’s not entirely out of reach.
The wild card
Can John Gibson maintain a full season as a reliable starting goaltender?
The Ducks enter the season with hopes pinned on John Gibson, who has shown glimpses of Still Having It despite the challenges. Over the past sixth straight years, his play has been impacted by a lackluster team environment, with the analytics era highlighting struggles like shots and expected goals against at five-on-five. Among 40 goalies with at least 35 games played, his goals saved above expected ranked 27th, far from his prime years.
However, defensive improvements at even strength and structure under new leadership in Anaheim may give him his best chance in years to prove he can be a reliable No. 1 again. Watching his resilience through late-season struggles, I feel optimistic about his ability to thrive in a more supportive system—a sentiment grounded in years of following the Ducks closely.
The strengths
The Ducks are still waiting for their young stars to mature, with Terry leading as their most effective player. While he has 60-70 point potential, the team lacks a true top-tier star. Playoff hopes rely on the development of McTavish, Zegras, and Carlsson, along with Gauthier’s potential. Defensively, cleaning up mistakes should be their focus.
On the back end, Pavel Mintyukov is promising offensively but remains a liability without the puck, as seen by his struggles with retrieving pucks and his inability to get involved in defensive zone or offensive zone transitions. With Mintyukov playing a relatively cushy role on a weak defensive team, his weaknesses are evident. Olen Zellweger, while having weaker raw numbers, carries more value due to his tougher minutes, primarily paired with Cam Fowler. Both Mintyukov and Zellweger are wild cards on the blue line, and their potential is crucial to the Ducks’ success moving forward. As both players continue to improve, they could become pillars of the team’s blue line for years to come.
Lukas Dostal showed promise last season with a save percentage of .903 and a solid performance in goals above expected, making him a potential starter as the Ducks continue their youth movement. Depth pieces like Isac Lundestrom and Radko Gudas also add value, with Lundestrom serving as a defensive-minded fourth-line center and Gudas providing defensive stability. However, despite these promising developments, Anaheim still has many holes to fill, and they will rely on their internal solutions to continue developing their core.
The weaknesses
As the Ducks approach the 2024-25 season, their roster remains a mix of youthful talent and veteran presence, yet there’s still a lot of uncertainty around their ability to make a real playoff push. While the core players like Terry and Fowler have shown glimpses of potential, the growth of their younger players will ultimately define their success. Terry, in particular, continues to be one of the team’s few stars, but the weak supporting cast and a lack of depth on the roster have made it hard to elevate the Ducks to a playoff-caliber team. The Ducks need a more consistent contribution from their players to compete against more talented teams in the league.
Looking at the core players, the focus falls on the growth of youngsters like McTavish, Zegras, and the recently added top prospect Gauthier. While these players have shown promise, they are still adjusting to their roles in the NHL. Vatrano, for instance, has struggled with balancing his offensive role as a top-six winger while also managing defensive responsibilities. His high offensive output last season came at the cost of a poor defensive rating, highlighting the challenge of relying on players who may be playing above their natural role. The team needs better overall defensive structure if they hope to improve and keep games competitive, especially as they continue to build around their younger players.
In terms of projection, the Ducks’ offensive power has been inconsistent, with the team relying too heavily on power play success. Players like Vatrano and Fowler need to produce, but they are often cast in roles that don’t allow them to excel at both ends of the ice. While Fowler was once a dependable defenseman, the over-reliance on him at the top pair has led to weak performance in critical moments. His defensive struggles in recent seasons indicate the need for a more balanced approach on the blue line. Players like Zellweger and Mintyukov are expected to make strides, but whether they can truly take the next step as top-pair defenders remains uncertain.
The Ducks’ defense remains one of the biggest areas of concern as they head into this season. Even with improvements from players like Fowler, the weak overall defensive play last season was apparent, and it continues to be a limiting factor for the team’s success. Fowler and the younger defensemen will need to step up if the Ducks hope to change their projections from another rebuilding year to one with a chance at the playoffs. However, a breakout from these players could help bolster the team’s weak areas and bring much-needed balance to the roster. A stronger performance on defense could elevate the Ducks’ overall team performance.
As the season progresses, it’s clear that the Ducks’ fate hinges on their core players stepping up and the younger players taking a big leap in their development. From my experience, teams with such a mix of youth and veteran leadership have a unique challenge in balancing the needs of both groups. I’ve seen similar situations where the team’s growth was hindered by the struggles of these young players to adapt quickly to the NHL’s pace. However, with optimism and a focus on improving weak areas like defensive play, the Ducks could surprise some critics this season.
The best case
The Anaheim Ducks are set for a major improvement with young talents like Carlsson, McTavish, Zegras, and others stepping up. Their breakout seasons could push the team into playoff contention, marking a promising future for the Ducks. If these prospects develop as expected, the Ducks could become a strong force in the West.
The worst case
The young players on the Anaheim Ducks have made progress, but unfortunately, their step forward hasn’t been big enough to lift the team. Some still struggle to prove themselves at the NHL level, while the overall depth around the core of the team continues to drag them down. The biggest concern, however, is the goaltending, which has been abysmal, keeping the Ducks in the bottom three of the standings. From personal experience, a lack of stability in net can make or break a team, and with the Ducks struggling in that area, it’s hard to see a playoff berth in their immediate future.
The bottom line
The Ducks’ 2024-25 season might not promise a spot in the playoffs, but it’s bound to be interesting. While the team may struggle to provide comfort for their fans, it offers a unique opportunity for those following their development. Under the leadership of Pat Verbeek and his company, we’ll see whether the Ducks can pull it off and defy expectations. As a hockey fan myself, it’s always intriguing to watch a team on the rise, even if the journey isn’t smooth. I’ve personally seen how these underdog stories can surprise us when we least expect it.